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The GOP Is Not Dead Yet. Replace the nature of the academic demographic appeal.

The GOP Is Not Dead Yet. Replace the nature of the academic demographic appeal.

It really is alive!

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1. JVL Is Obviously Appropriate

That’s the joke we now have round the office plus it’s less about my Inherent Genius than exactly how my inclination is always to use the many pessimistic view of any situation and exactly how the view that is pessimistic down to be correct more often than not.

But I would like to mention one thing I happened to be really incorrect about: the ongoing future of the Republican party.

My working presumption during the last four years had been that Trumpism might be an extinction-level occasion for Republicans and that in Trump’s wreckage the GOP will be paid down to a rump celebration with great local power, but truly a minority that is permanent. Such as the California GOP after Pete Wilson.

Wrong, incorrect, wrong.

I am talking about, not totally wrong: The Republican party will be, when it comes to near future, a minority celebration. The GOP will not win a popular vote plurality any time in the future. And also this permanent minority status is basically uncommon in American politics.

Look at this: Starting in 1860, prior to the start of the Civil War, Republicans won the vote that is popular six consecutive elections.

So that it’s reasonable to express that the Civil War switched the Democrats into a minority that is permanent at the national degree, yes?

Since 1988, the Democrats have actually won the nationwide popular vote in 7 of 8 presidential elections.